fox666

作者: Amy Kaslow      时间: 2013年08月06日    来源: 财富中文网  

柬埔寨前往全球各大金融中心和市场的招商引资人员总是鼓吹这个东南亚国家的经济欣欣向荣，属于地区枢纽，同时又向全球企业敞开大门。劳动力成本低廉，土地供应充足，还有丰富的自然资源等待开采。
    但同样是这个国家，在全球腐败和侵犯人权排行榜上均名列第十，而且有着沉重的大屠杀历史。
    面对柬埔寨选民抗议上周的大选结果(这是柬埔寨历史上操控和腐败程度最为严重的一次选举)，柬埔寨领导人们再也无法回避各种丑闻、经济困境和系统性腐败问题。需要解决的问题包括：柬埔寨内资和外资工厂中低技能工人恶劣的工作和住宿条件；暴力“征地”驱逐，肆意将柬埔寨土地转让给国内外投资者；迟迟未对前红色高棉领导人采取法律制裁。20世纪70年代的共产主义革命中，约200万柬埔寨人被奴役、挨饿和屠杀。
    那些关注柬埔寨市场的人们是不是只需要把这些现实视作在新兴市场经商的成本就可以了？
    很多美国企业都打算进入这个市场，雪佛龙(Chevron)、福特(Ford)和通用电气(General Electric)早已到来。但目前即使是最积极主张进入这一市场的人们，对于当前是不是时候，也语焉不详。以康菲公司(ConocoPhillips)为首的蓝筹公司联盟??美国-东盟工商理事会(US-ASEAN Business Council)最近发布了一份公报，向会员们通报了柬埔寨的商业机会近况以及一些令人不安的报道。比如，大批抗议者们要求实施自由公平的选举，工厂安全措施不到位造成工伤惨剧，以及监管改革受阻等等。
    对于可能进入柬埔寨的美国公司而言，是否进入柬埔寨的考量必须超越常规的风险评估。美国已经有很长一段时间没有介入这个国家了。从1969年至1972年，深陷越战泥潭的华盛顿决策者们决定扩大打击目标。美国B-52战机在柬埔寨扔下了54万吨炸弹；平民死亡人数预计为15- 50万。这个决定备受争议，令人深感遗憾，时至今日仍然是一个不可触碰的痛。
    目前，美国在柬埔寨的活动主要是依托于援助，投资技术援助或“体制建设”。2012年，华盛顿为柬埔寨卫生、治理、教育和经济发展项目提供了1.213亿美元的双边援助。
    有些人呼吁美国要增强在柬埔寨的参与度。美国战略与国际研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)东南亚研究主任欧内斯特•鲍尔表示，鉴于柬埔寨正在与地区内的民主改革趋势背道而驰，当前美国的影响非常重要。他说，这个地区即将迎来“东盟之春”，独裁统治早已让位于“新兴的对于民权、治理和法制的期待”。柬埔寨是个例外，他说，柬埔寨陷于“政治动荡之中，应该引起邻国和东盟盟国，包括美国的担忧”。
国家领导层令人失望，贫穷盛行
    作为曾经的“铁腕”领导人、红色高棉政权的早期活跃成员，柬埔寨首相洪森如今已被边缘化，没了声音，遭到近30年统治期间反对人士的驱逐。国际观察人士经常谴责柬埔寨选举的不公平；今年英国观察人士拒绝返回，称柬埔寨政府在上次折中的选举后尚未实施他们的建议。
    洪森势力强大的副首相索安表示，特别法庭“展现了柬埔寨矢志于法治的决心”以及全新的司法途径。但是，柬埔寨的司法体系自己也承认，勒索、贿赂和政治游说无所不在。   
    Cambodia's promoters fanning out to money centers and markets worldwide pitch the Southeast Asian nation's economy as practically booming, a regional pivot point, and wide open for global business. Labor is cheap, land available, and natural resources ready for exploitation.
    But the same country courting corporations ranks tenth as the most corrupt country on earth and scores just as high among human rights abusers, adding to the deep scars of its brutal past.
    With Cambodian voters protesting this week's national election results -- the most controlled and corroded in the country's history -- the nation's leaders cannot evade the rampant scandals, economic hardship, and systemic corruption the campaign thrust into the spotlight. It's a laundry list that includes inhumane working and housing conditions for low-skilled workers in local and foreign-owned factories; violent "land grabs," forced evictions and unbridled transfers of Cambodian land to local and foreign investors; and the delayed prosecution of former Khmer Rouge leaders charged with enslaving, starving, and slaughtering some 2 million Cambodians during the 1970s Communist revolution.
    Should those eyeing Cambodia's market simply factor these realities as costs of doing business in an emerging market?
    American enterprises are poised to enter the country. Chevron (CVX), Ford (F), and General Electric (GE) are already there. But even advocates of moving into Cambodia equivocate on whether now is the right time to make a move. A recent communiqué from the US-ASEAN Business Council, a blue chip group chaired by ConocoPhillips (COP), updates members on commercial opportunities in Cambodia, along with reports about throngs of protestors pushing for free and fair elections, tragic worker fatalities due to unsafe factory conditions, and stymied regulatory reforms.
    For American prospectors, considerations over whether to enter Cambodia may extend beyond the usual risk assessments. There's been a long lull in American involvement in the nation. From 1969 to 1972, Washington policymakers entrenched in the Vietnam War decided to broaden their targets. American B-52s dropped 540,000 tons of bombs on Cambodia; death toll estimates range from 150,000 to 500,000 civilians. The decision was highly contested, deeply regretted, and still a prickly point.
    Currently, U.S. presence in Cambodia is largely aid-based, with investments in technical assistance, or "institution building." Last year, Washington extended $121.3 million in 2012 bilateral assistance for health, governance, education, and economic growth projects.
    Some are calling for deeper engagement with Cambodia. U.S. influence is crucial now, as Cambodia bucks the democratic reform trend in the region, argues Ernest Bower, the Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He says the region is on the cusp of an "ASEAN Spring" with autocracies already giving way to "new and rising expectations for empowerment, governance, and the rule of law." Cambodia, he says, is the outlier, mired "in political instability that should concern its neighbors and ASEAN partners, including the United States."
Disappointing leadership, extensive poverty
    A "strong arm" leader and an early, avid member of the dreaded Khmer Rouge, Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen has sidelined, muzzled, and expelled his opposition during nearly 30 years of rule. International monitors routinely condemn Cambodia for unfair elections; this year, British monitors refused to return, saying the Cambodian government had yet to implement their recommendations after the last compromised election.
    Hun Sen's powerful Deputy Prime Minister Sok An, says the Tribunal "demonstrate[s] Cambodia's commitment to the rule of law," and a new, novel approach to justice. Yet, by its own admission, Cambodia's judiciary is rife with extortion, bribery, and political influence peddling.
反腐败国际性非政府组织??透明国际(Transparency International)近日刚刚发布的2013年柬埔寨报告显示，高达65%的柬埔寨人自称在过去12个月里曾向司法人员行贿。向警察行贿的比例也达到了65%，向公用事业人员行贿的有62%，向登记许可机构人员行贿的有62%，向土地服务机构人员行贿的有57%，向教育机构人员行贿的有30%，向医疗服务人员行贿的有38%。
    索安打消了那些希望有重大变革的期望，宣称“司法系统不是一夜间就能改变的”，但他对于司法机构的确拥有直接控制。被昵称为“保护人之王”的索安是柬埔寨内阁办公厅最高长官，主管石油、橡胶和伐木公司的审批、合同和投资事宜；负责仲裁土地争议；执掌旅游主管部门。批评人士称，少数得宠者进行权钱交易，经济资源外逃。
    现年61岁的Prak Sakhorn住在一个小村庄，她的家庭依赖微薄的收入生活。和许多柬埔寨人一样，他们用食物换取服装和其他必需品。联合国世界卫生组织(The United Nations World Health Organization)公布的Prak Sakhorn和其他柬埔寨女性的平均寿命为66岁，在全球处于垫底的水平。这项统计数据无疑令人悲哀。但她的孙女面临的统计数据也一样黯淡：世界卫生组织称，柬埔寨儿童的营养状况是全世界最差的，20世纪80年代以来一直接近垫底。
    柬埔寨90%的贫穷植根于农村地区，农民勉强维持生计。遭到污染的水源和卫生设施缺乏导致水传播疾病蔓延。柬埔寨全国范围内只有不到半数的家庭能接入清洁水，只有1/3拥有抽水马桶。但即便是在最偏远的地区，再小的村庄也设有洪森执政党??柬埔寨人民党(Cambodian Peoples' Party, CPP)的支部。柬埔寨人民党机构的豪华建筑与一旁的泥地草棚和简陋的高脚屋形成了鲜明的对比。
    拥挤的城市中，法国殖民时期遗留下来的建筑年久失修，与冷战时期东方建筑师们热衷的共产主义风格大厦毗邻而居。为了保证24小时生产，很多工厂为员工提供的茅草板屋宿舍人满为患。柬埔寨在持续大兴土木的过程中也建造了一些售价百万美元的豪华住房，出售给那些与柬埔寨人民党有着千丝万缕联系的有钱人。
    每次政府卖地都会导致成千上万的人们被迫搬迁，总人数迄今已接近50万人。投资者们铲平房屋，建造新楼、开挖资源和种植橡胶树。世界银行旗下的国际金融公司(The World Bank's International Finance Corporation)和德国的德意志银行是这些交易中的最大投资者。
    支持者们希望利用柬埔寨相比中国较低的制造成本来抗衡中国在柬埔寨和东盟的大规模资本投资之势。美国进出口银行(U.S. Export-Import Bank)和海外私人投资公司(Overseas Private Investment Corporation)等企业纷纷要求政府推进，但美国国务院的反应相对审慎。
       A staggering 65% of Cambodians reported paying a bribe to the judiciary over the last 12 months, according to Transparency International's Global corruption barometer, which just issued its 2013 report on Cambodia. An equal number of Cambodians surveyed said they paid a bribe to the police, 62% to a utility, 62% to registry and permit services, 57% to the Land Services, 30% to education institutions, and 38% to medical services.
    Though Sok An disabuses those hoping for dramatic change, claiming "the judicial system is not something you can change overnight," he has direct control over the organization. Nicknamed "the King of Patronage," he heads the Council of Ministers and oversees permits, contracts, and investments in the nation's oil, rubber, and logging enterprises; he arbitrates land disputes; and he leads the tourism authority. Critics say the favored few are on the take, while economic wherewithal escapes much of the country.
    Sixty-one year old Prak Sakhorn lives in a small village, where her family earns a meager living, and, like so many Cambodians, they barter food for clothing and other essentials. She shares a discouraging statistic with Cambodian women: The United Nations World Health Organization (WHO) puts their average life span at 66 years, among the lowest in the world. Her granddaughter's outlook is equally sobering: WHO says Cambodian children's nutritional status is among the world's poorest, and near bottom since the 1980s.
    Ninety percent of Cambodia's poverty is rooted in rural areas, where locals survive as subsistence farmers. Polluted water and minimal sanitation translate into widespread water-born diseases. Countrywide, fewer than half of Cambodian households have access to clean water, and only a third have toilets. Yet even in remote reaches, the smallest villages are punctuated with an outpost of Hun Sen's ruling Cambodian Peoples' Party (CPP). The CPP constructions are lavish, compared to the neighboring mud floor lean-tos and simple stilted huts.
    In the congested cities, decaying vestiges of French Colonialism abut communist-style housing blocks favored by the Cold War era's eastern architects. To ensure 24-hour production, many factories have workers' quarters, over-crowded board structures with thatched roofs. An ongoing building boom has made luxury housing available to rich Cambodians at million-dollar prices, affordable to those with CPP ties.
    Government land sales have displaced thousands of people at a time -- approaching half a million, to date -- as investors level homes and break ground for new construction, resource prospecting, and rubber plantations. The World Bank's International Finance Corporation and Germany's Deutsche Bank are among the top investors in those deals.
    Proponents want to tap into Cambodia's lower cost alternative to producing in China, to counter China's major capital outlays in Cambodia and in ASEAN. Despite corporate pressure for the U.S. Export-Import Bank and the Overseas Private Investment Corporation to stake a sizable claim, the State Department response has been measured.
美国参与其中，希望带来成果
    美国驻柬埔寨大使威廉姆•托德上任已有一年，但仅仅只是提升了美国金融形象以及柬埔寨的出口可能性，本月早些时候还刚刚举行了一场网络研讨会和赴美商业贸易代表团。“我们需要重新定义柬埔寨的企业和商业形象，”他最近在《向大使提问》(Ask the Ambassador)的网络文章中这样说道。
    托德表示，更多的美元资金将为柬埔寨年轻人带来更高的工资，降低他们“被贩卖的可能性”。柬埔寨70%的人口不到30岁，这样的人口结构在美国-东盟工商理事会柬埔寨国家经理丹尼尔•汉德森看来令人鼓舞。“如果你在金边和大学里与年轻人接触，很多人都非常精明，比一些成人更善于此道……他们使用互联网，他们倾向于阅读国际新闻，他们渴望机会，希望能赶上亚洲其他地区。”
    对于绝大多数处于中下层劳动者的年轻人而言，被贩卖是真实存在的风险。“一旦人们能够在自己的国家赚一份养家糊口的工资，就不再需要寡廉鲜耻的中介帮助，”托德说。他还补充称，美国参与度的上升能增加稳定性。
    贷款机构们警告称，柬埔寨的经济增长可能导致过高的代价。鉴于服装、旅游和农业表现强劲，世界银行将柬埔寨今年的GDP增速预测值从6.7%调高到了7.0%，预计通胀率为3%。但世界银行依然拒绝向柬埔寨贷款；2011年由于暴力强制驱逐，世界银行切断了向它的贷款。银行官员们表示，他们会等到大选尘埃落定后再考虑新的贷款计划。
    柬埔寨需要“基础公共设施，必备的医疗保健和教育服务”，才能成为一个更加安全的投资地。汉德森表示，“另外，他们还需要发展消费者群体。”相比东盟其他透明度更高、经济实力更强大的邻国，柬埔寨尚未培养出一个具有购买力的中产阶级。这个国家大约1/3的人口仍然处于贫困线以下。
    洪森宣称，他已将这个国家从赤贫转变为距离中等收入国家咫尺之遥的状态。但就像很多政府管控信息，有关饥饿、就业和工资的官方数据大多与现实脱节。全球观察人士称，柬埔寨1/3的人口营养不良，更多人生长发育受阻。大多数高中毕业生的最佳前景是进入一家工厂从事高度重复性的低技能工作，每月赚70-90美元。“如果很出色，”一位使馆经济专员表示，“或许有机会进办公室工作”，多赚10%。
    农业工人的月工资为40美元。性服务行业的收入明显高很多，吸引了很多男孩、女孩、男人和女人们，有些人每月收入多达500美元。柬埔寨宪法要求对性交易进行管控，“但这些法律都没有得到执行，”上述使馆经济专员说。“因此，没办法知道究竟有多少人被迫沦为性工作者。”人贩子瞄准贫穷的家庭，提出帮他们养孩子，甚至干脆拐走。
   In U.S. involvement, hope for good jobs
    After a year into the job, U.S. ambassador to Cambodia William Todd only raised the profile of American finance and export possibilities in Cambodia with a webinar and trade mission to the U.S. earlier this month. "We need to redefine Cambodia's business and commercial image," he declared in a recent Ask the Ambassador online posting.
    Todd says more American dollars will lead to higher-wage jobs for Cambodia's youth and reduce its "vulnerability to labor trafficking." With 70% of the population under the age of 30, the demographics are promising to Daniel Henderson, Cambodia Country Manager for the US-ASEAN Business Council. "If you engage with youth in Phnom Penh and at the university level, many are more worldly, more aware than a lot of adults ... they use the Internet, they're inclined to read international news, and they're hungry for opportunity and to catch up with the rest of Asia."
    For the vast majority of youth hanging from the lower rung of the workforce, falling into human trafficking is a real risk. "When people are able to earn a living wage in their home country, they do not need the help of unscrupulous brokers," Todd says, adding that a larger U.S. presence can lead to greater stability.
    Lenders caution that Cambodia's economic growth could come at too high a price. The World Bank raised its GDP growth estimate from 6.7% to 7.0% this year, given robust garment, tourism, and agriculture sectors, and forecasts inflation at 3%. But the Bank is still closed to Cambodia; it cut off loans in 2011, reacting to the violent forced evictions. Bank officials say they'll wait until after the election results settle before discussing any new loan programs.
    Cambodia needs "basic infrastructure, adequate health care, and education" to be a safer bet, says Henderson. "And they need to develop a consumer base," he adds. Compared to more transparent and economically stronger ASEAN partners, Cambodia has not cultivated a middle class with purchasing power. And roughly a third of the population falls below the poverty line.
    Hun Sen claims that he has moved the nation from abject poverty to within striking distance of middle-income status. But, like much government-sanctioned information, official data on hunger, jobs, and wages hardly reflect reality. Global monitors say a third of the population is malnourished and more have stunted growth. The best prospects for most high school graduates: work in a factory where repetitive tasks require low skills and the pay is roughly $70 to $90 a month. "If you're a rock star," says one diplomatic economic attaché, "you might work in an office" and earn 10% more.
    Farm workers can expect $40 in monthly wages. The sex industry's dramatically higher pay draws boys, girls, men, and women, with some earning as much as $500 a month. Cambodia's constitution regulates the trade, "but the laws are not being enforced," says the diplomatic attaché, "so there's no way to know how many people are enslaved as sex workers." Traffickers target poor families, offering to unburden parents by taking their children, or simply stealing them.
直面残暴历史
    很多村庄和城市都埋藏着一段柬埔寨人现在才开始得知的大屠杀历史；它影响了整整一代人和他们未出生的孩子们。“这里的罪行规模超过了我处理过的任何案子，”一位拥有博茨瓦纳、卢旺达和其他一些动乱地经验、训练有素的国际特别法庭法官表示。“每个家庭都受到了影响。巨大伤害带来的社会问题让我工作过的其他任何法庭都相形见绌。”
    今天，红色高棉的作恶者们与受害者比邻而居。当年红色高棉招募了儿童、农民和狂热分子攻击妇女和孩子，直接谋杀专业人士、学生、教育家、企业主、戴眼镜的人、体弱的人，这份名单可以列得很长。
    最近的大选宣传中充斥着否认之词，但最让人刺痛的可能是洪森威胁称，任何对他的正义讨伐都可能带来内战。
    著名战地记者和作者伊丽莎白•贝克出现在特别法庭证人名单中，但法庭已四次延后她的出庭。贝克说：“看上去好像得等上25年。这场审判本应在1980年举行。一旦它不再是一个政治问题，问题就变成了谁能拿出最多的钱买通法官。”
    不过，她说：“虽然这个法庭不健全，有时候很羸弱，但ECCC仍然是独立司法的典范……而且开启了很多途径。”如果贝克的直觉没错，那么在压力、媒体曝光和万众期待下法治已在柬埔寨扎下了根。
    或许赶不上今年的大选，但“相当多的柬埔寨人会像东南亚邻国的人们一样提出更多要求。”美国战略与国际研究中心的鲍尔表示，“企业家们将呼吁必要的法治和经济自由以打造有价值的高产出企业……日益团结在一起的、受过教育的公民们将对政府打击和控制反对言论的容忍度大大下降。”
    与此同时，还有一些交易要达成。柬埔寨商务部长毛托拉声称，今天的柬埔寨“早已达到了……(一些外国投资者的)要求”，包括政治和宏观经济的稳定，保护性的投资法规以及有力的奖励优惠措施。他勾出了一些金边希望吸引海外政府和机构投资的行业，总额超过10亿美元。并称，柬埔寨的大门已经敞开，希望能够吸引到更多的投资。（财富中文网）
    译者：早稻米
   Staring down a brutal past



    Layered underneath hardships in villages and cities is a genocidal past that Cambodians are only starting to come to terms with; an entire generation and its unborn children were affected. "The level of criminality here is larger than anything I've ever dealt with," says one of the many highly skilled international Tribunal jurists recruited for his experience in Bosnia, Rwanda, and other trouble spots. "Every single family is affected. The social problems derived from the enormous amount of damage [pales] compared to any other court that I've worked in."



    Today, Khmer Rouge perpetrators live next door to victims. The Khmer Rouge enlisted pre-adolescents, peasants, and ideologues to attack women and children, commit categorical murders of professionals, students, educators, business owners, people who wore eyeglasses, the infirm, the list is long.


    Recent election campaign rhetoric was rife with denial, but the most stinging may have been Hun Sen's threat that any pursuit of justice against him threatens civil war.


    Celebrated war correspondent and author Elizabeth Becker is on the Tribunal witness list; the Court has postponed her appearance four times. "This is what happens when you're forced to wait 25 years. This trial should have been held in 1980. When it's not a political issue, then it's who has the most money to pay off the judge," Becker says.


    Yet, she says, "Wounded as this Court is, weak as it sometimes appears, the ECCC is an example of independent justice ... and has opened up a lot of avenues." If Becker's hunch is right, the rule of law has gained a foothold in Cambodia through pressure, exposure, or public expectation.



    Perhaps not in time for this year's election, but "a critical mass of Cambodians will, like their Southeast Asian neighbors, demand more," says CSIS's Bower. "Entrepreneurs will call for the rule of law and the economic freedom necessary to create valuable, productive businesses ... An increasingly connected and educated citizenry will become less tolerant of government crackdowns and control of opposing opinions."


    Meanwhile, there are deals to be made. Cambodia today "already meets ... requirements" that foreign investors seek, asserts Ministry of Commerce Secretary of State Mao Thora, including political and macroeconomic stability, protective investment laws, and strong incentives. He ticks off a list of industries in which the nation's capital Phnom Penh entices both international sovereign and corporate finance, topping $1 billion. The door, he says, is wide open for more.